The uncertainty of the 4am knock on the door

01 March 2026

Andrew Crisp reflects on the uncertainty that dominated this year’s EFMD Deans conference.

When the knock at the door comes at 4am, it’s never good news.  Normally, it’s the taxi at the start of an international trip, but this time I was on my way home.  Having chosen the sustainable option, I was travelling on the sleeper train from the EFMD Dean’s conference in Vienna to Stuttgart.  The knock on the door was the German border police who wanted to see my passport!!

It was perhaps symptomatic of the issue that dominated the Dean’s conference, uncertainty or disruption, however you want to describe the situation facing business education.  Much of the uncertainty focused on AI, what it means for the classroom, what is means for teaching and research, what it means for professional services and what it means for entry level graduate careers.

The uncertainty was perhaps best summed up in the speech by Martin Wolff, the chief economics commentator at the Financial Times.  Asked to define the current global order in one line, Martin Wolf replied: "Today, the global order isn't!"

However, the uncertainty is not just driven by AI, although the question of graduate jobs is fundamental.  The motivation for almost all those taking a business degree is a better job, whether that’s a first job for undergraduates or a step forward or a new direction for postgraduates.  If job opportunities shrink, the ROI for prospective students becomes far more uncertain.

At the same time, new markets are opening up for business schools as those already working look to update their skills and knowledge to remain in employment.  The WEF estimated that up to one billion people would need new skills by 2030.  Yet how do business schools respond?

Some have extensive executive education operations; just six schools worldwide already have total executive education revenues of more than $700 million.  For many, lifelong learning and executive education are new ventures which are very different from running degrees.  The best laid plans can be derailed by internal systems that make delivery of shorter courses difficult and unprofitable.

Uncertainty is also widespread in international business education.  Demand among students to study internationally remains strong, however for the USA in particular, but also the UK, Canada and Australia, government policies are leading to many international students look for alternative study destinations.  At the same time, there is growing interest in transnational education with many institutions setting up satellite campuses, particularly in India, China and parts of the Middle East.

All of the uncertainty potentially raises the prospect of a new model business school, delivering differently, utilising AI throughout their operations, in different places with remote campuses, and to different audiences more focused on those in work than those taking a first degree.  However, a new model might also bring new approaches to research, to faculty structures, to the subjects taught and much more.

When the knock on the door comes at 4am, do you go back to sleep or try and make the most of the day ahead.  My day ended with a trip to see my daughter, currently studying in Paris, and a trip to the Stade de France to watch the France vs Ireland rugby international.